Changing Britain, Changing Politics?

3 September 2009

One of the lesser-commented aspects of Barack Obama’s triumphant 2008 campaign was the degree to which it was built on major US demographic change. Just as the Republicans successfully wedged away chunks of middle America following the turbulent 1960s, the Democrats have now done the same with Hispanics, the young and, most interestingly, professionals working in knowledge industries.

With remarkable accuracy, an analysis of demographic, geographic and ideological change written in 2002, The Emerging Democratic Majority by John B Judis and Ruy Teixeira predicted a number of unexpected states that could fall into Democratic hands as a result of change. Obama’s wins in New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia were not all that surprising when placed in this analytical context.

There are two things that are interesting about these changes. Firstly, it would appear that the US has tilted in a Democratic direction, neutralising the advantage that the Republicans have enjoyed in presidential elections for decades. Secondly, it gave Barack Obama scope to propose a more radical agenda: universal healthcare, redistributive tax changes, cap-and-trade carbon markets, and large-scale public investment are some obvious examples. He could have gone for a more cautious programme but opted for greater ambition.

Why is this of interest to the British left? Well, it would appear that Britain has been changing in some similar ways to the US. Most particularly, there has been a continual expansion of the number of ‘knowledge workers.’ Research from the Work Foundation shows that such workers now comprise 42 per cent of the total. And the number continues to rise. (http://www.theworkfoundation.com/research/publications/publicationdetail.aspx?oItemId=41&parentPageID=102&PubType=)

After Labour’s traumatic defeat in the 1992 General Election, Giles Radice and others engaged in a vigourous debate about how Labour could win the South. The response to this challenge was New Labour.

Now these ‘knowledge workers’- while by no means the whole of the picture- constitute an important demographic. They are not homogenous, they include workers in both the public and private sectors, with the former dispersed and the latter concentrated in the South East and high tech powerhouses such as Leeds and Manchester.

What do these ‘knowledge workers’ believe? Where are their political parameters? What are their priorities? The left will need to supply convincing answers to these questions if it is to propose radical solutions that leverage opportunity and achievement.

What this can’t become is some exercise of tracking the median voter and designing party programmes to simply appeal to the successors of Worcester Woman alone. The next left must be broad based and pluralistic. The traditional working-class is diminished and fragmented. It cannot be taken for granted anymore. Any programme with social justice by definition must embody an ethos of helping the least advantaged.

The historian Eric Hobsbawm has said: “The European left relied on a working class that no longer exists in its old form, and in order to recover it will need to find a new constituency.” Well, we can agree with that as long as the new constituency has a place for this metamorphosed working class.

The political debate and discussion has proceeded at a furious pace on the left over recent months. It must have context. That context is an understanding of a Britain that has changed considerably even since Labour came to power. In so doing, the future path of the left will not be in any way determined. However, at least it won’t be wandering unaided in the dark.

Anthony Painter is this week’s guest editor of LabourList.

2 Comments

2 Responses to “Changing Britain, Changing Politics?”

  1. michael_green
    September 3rd, 2009 @ 2:10 pm

    How come labour's current policies of public service entitlements and industrial activism is leaving them 17% to 14% behind the Tories? This is all knowledge worker based rhetoric. Labour needs a new emotive language of community, solidarity and democracy.

  2. treborc
    September 17th, 2009 @ 12:39 pm

    Fine then being working class in the old sense I'll move on then, seeing as new labour no longer thinks I'm worth bothering, maybe I'll go and change the BNP or maybe I'll join the Tories or the Lib Dem's, the one party I'll not bother joining again is the Labour party, obviously they are into people who have an IQ money and ideals, whoops that was me ten years ago, but New labour helped me end up being unemployed without a party.

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